Goodbye, Of Sorts
Hello there, loyal RotoHardball reader. You might have already seen this elsewhere today, but RotoHardball will be no more as of today; fantasy baseball analysis isn't going away, though, it's just moving to our sister site, Fake Teams.
I'd like to thank everyone who has read us or written here in the past. It was a fun little place to write and talk fantasy baseball, and I got the chance to work with some dudes who know what they are talking about.
While Bret Sayre, Todd McMacken, and Michael Barr will be coming along with me to Fake Teams, the rest of our crew can be followed at their other homes, or on Twitter. Thanks once again for reading us, and we hope you'll follow us to our new homes and beyond.
Spring Training Focal Points
It's an old adage of baseball (fantasy and otherwise) that fans, managers, and clubs should not look too far into spring training performance. The reasons for this are clear enough: the competition is not always major league quality, some players need the time to shake off the rust that has accumulated over the off-season, some players (particularly pitchers) like to experiment with new ideas or approaches during the spring, and perhaps most importantly, spring training is too small a sample size from which strong conclusions can be drawn. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to completely ignore spring training story-lines. Here are a two things I like to look for during the spring games:
Live Blogging My Second 2012 Mock Draft
It's about that time again. Since things have shifted significantly in many players' ADP since the last time I threw down at Mock Draft Central, so I wanted to check it out myself. And to add to the fun, fellow Roto Hardball writer Todd McMacken is joining me in the draft room to show these kids how it's done (his team is "Bill Bavasi's Ghost"). For this mock draft, I decided to take a slightly different approach -- mainly that I'm going to divide up my risk a little more. Some of my early picks may be a little riskier and because of that, some of my later picks may be a little safer. I'm just as curious to see how this is going to turn out as you are. I hope.
Some quick league notes first. Like last time, this league is a 2-catcher format. Unlike last time, it's also a 14-team league instead of a 10-teamer. That means things are going to get real pretty fast right around the 15th round. So without any further ado, I give you this mock draft with live (well, live when I'm actually typing it) analysis:
Round 1, Fight!
| R1 P1 | Boil Peter Gammons Alive | Kemp, Matt | OF | LA |
| R1 P2 | she hit me first | Pujols, Albert | 1B | ANA |
| R1 P3 | Alan Funt Congressman | Verlander, Justin | SP | DET |
| R1 P4 | dublin mudslide | Cabrera, Miguel | 1B | DET |
| R1 P5 | BRAUNY TOUGH | Tulowitzki, Troy | SS | COL |
| R1 P6 | Devoted M's Fan | Bautista, Jose | OF | TOR |
| R1 P7 | Waunie's Boys | Upton, Justin | OF | ARI |
| R1 P8 | Bill Bavasi's Ghost | Longoria, Evan | 3B | TB |
| R1 P9 | Cubbies | Fielder, Prince | 1B | DET |
| R1 P10 | The Mighty Casey Kotchman | Ramirez, Hanley | SS | MIA |
| R1 P11 | Pachygrapsus | Votto, Joey | 1B | CIN |
| R1 P12 | Kablammo | Cano, Robinson | 2B | NYY |
| R1 P13 | qcubed3 | Gonzalez, Adrian | 1B | BOS |
| R1 P14 | BEADS? | Ellsbury, Jacoby | OF | BOS |
You may think I'm a little crazy for taking Hanley over Ellsbury, A-Gone, Votto, Cano, etc. But I think he'll be back with a vengeance and with 3B eligibility to boot. In fact, I just wrote about it this week! Verlander at #3 overall is nuts, by the way.
| R2 P1 | BEADS? | Pedroia, Dustin | 2B | BOS |
| R2 P2 | qcubed3 | Kershaw, Clayton | SP | LA |
| R2 P3 | Kablammo | Gonzalez, Carlos | OF | COL |
| R2 P4 | Pachygrapsus | Stanton, Mike | OF | MIA |
| R2 P5 | The Mighty Casey Kotchman | Kinsler, Ian | 2B | TEX |
| R2 P6 | Cubbies | Beltre, Adrian | 3B | TEX |
| R2 P7 | Bill Bavasi's Ghost | Halladay, Roy | SP | PHI |
| R2 P8 | Waunie's Boys | Lee, Cliff | SP | PHI |
| R2 P9 | Devoted M's Fan | Hamels, Cole | SP | PHI |
| R2 P10 | BRAUNY TOUGH | Granderson, Curtis | OF | NYY |
| R2 P11 | dublin mudslide | Teixeira, Mark | 1B | NYY |
| R2 P12 | Alan Funt Congressman | Kotchman, Casey | 1B | FA |
| R2 P13 | she hit me first | Hamilton, Josh | OF | TEX |
| R2 P14 | Boil Peter Gammons Alive | Reyes, Jose | SS | MIA |
Round 2 is my obligatory Ian Kinsler pick. He's a top 15 player and no one drafts him as such. Oh well, their loss. And just like that, my two middle infield spots are filled. Halladay is a great grab at 21 overall by Todd after one team stretches for Beltre. And now we've reached the first joke pick of the mock draft (as there's usually one funny guy in each room) with new Indians 1B and my team's namesake Casey Kotchman taken in the 2nd round. Good job guys!
R and RBI: Each Team's Top Run Scorer For 2012 - Part 2
Finally, we've reached the end of R and RBI's predictions of the top run producers and run scorers for each team in 2012. I hope you've enjoyed these articles as much as I've enjoyed preparing them. As always, you can check out both parts of the RBI series here and here, as well as the first part of our look at runs scored here. With Spring Training just around the corner, let's see if we can project the guys most likely to lead their team in runs for the other half of MLB.
Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman
Let's start things off with a tough one. The Nationals are still a team in flux, following their failed pursuit of Prince Fielder. Who's going to play center field? Roger Bernadina, Mike Cameron, or Jayson Werth? Will Bryce Harper break Spring Training with the big club? Did they really sign Mark DeRosa to play a full-time LF? With what we know about the Nats, you could guess that either Ian Desmond or Bernadina might start the season as the leadoff hitter, with Danny Espinosa or Mark DeRosa hitting second. None of those options are particularly appealing to rack up runs, so I'll go with a known quantity: #3 hitter Ryan Zimmerman. Zim is coming off a rough, injury-plagued 2011, but if he returns to his usual form, he'll be a solid hitting force and a fixture at the third spot in the lineup. A .360-.380 OBP plus power could equal 80-90 runs even in an unimpressive National lineup.
Baltimore Orioles: Nick Markakis
Let's get sad for a minute. The Baltimore Orioles have everyday players with terrible, terrible OBP. Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy, two of the better hitters on the team, managed OBPs of .319 and .310, respectively, which should by all accounts keep them from scoring too many runs. Well all know about Mark Reynolds, he of the three true outcomes. His 37 HR carried him to the 2011 team lead in R, but it was only 84. That's a paltry number for a hitter with that many home runs. I'll go with Nick Markakis, despite his diminishing power. He's a fixture at the third spot in the order, he's unlikely to be dealt, and he's the only regular player on the Orioles who seems to be capable of posting an above-.350 OBP. That will have to do.
Double Play Depth: Hanley Is Still The Alpha Dog in Miami
It takes a special set of circumstances for a consistent top-5 fantasy pick to nearly drop out of the first two rounds before the age of 29. In fact, Hanley Ramirez just turned 28 a little over a month ago. But the perfect storm of a shoulder injury (which caused him to miss the last two months of 2011), an unlucky statistical season and an ocean of whispers about #want issues have sullied our beloved fantasy monster's good name. Is he happy to be playing third base? Is he really that close with Jose Reyes, even though Hanley is his daughter's godfather? What does he think about the new uniforms or the monstrosity that is the center field HR display? In reality, none of these things matter -- especially for fantasy. Hanley can still hit, and he's pissed.
Currently, Hanley is the 20th overall pick and 3rd SS off the board, behind Troy Tulowitzki and new co-Marlin Jose Reyes. Just reading that out loud is giving my brain a 404 error. So let's fix the broken links here and see whether there's validity to his new landing spot.
MLB Injury Updates
There's a few notable names in the injury update for this week: Dallas Braden, Peter Bourjos, Tim Hudson. It's that last week before players start heading down to Florida, if they aren't there already. Lockers are getting full, condos are being rented out, and then there's one of my favorite parts of spring---the watch list of "I'm in the best shape of my life!" reports. You will start to see and hear this cliche being used as if it were part of Crash Davis' list. View more here. "Best Shape of My Life" (BSOML) is also used by writers when they see someone report lighter or more muscle-cut than when they last saw them in October....as in "He's in the best shape of his life!" Look out for lots of this in the weeks to come. On with the injuries....
Is Miguel Cabrera Now the First Overall Pick?
A couple weeks ago, I wrote an article aiming to figure out which player would be the best choice for the manager with the first overall pick to take. And yes, by 'figure out.' I meant 'crowdsource.' Whatever.
The results, kind of to my surprise, were fairly decisive; fully a third of you named Matt Kemp as the top roto choice, despite the fact that it was a crowded field, featuring six other players (and an Other) from which to choose. Plus, one of those players was Albert Pujols, whom we've spent most of the last decade knowing -- with the exception of an owner with a fetish for positional scarcity -- would be taken first overall.
Now, if someone were to supplant Pujols at the top of the roto rankings, it's not too terribly shocking that Matt Kemp would be the one to do it. After all, he has an element of speed in his game that Pujols never really possessed (and certainly doesn't now) -- he was, after all, one home run short of a 40-40 campaign. But what I'm wondering in the wake of the news (if it counts as such by now, which it almost certainly does not) of Miguel Cabrera moving to third base to accommodate Prince Fielder's arrival is whether Miggy -- with 3B eligibility -- is now the top overall pick.
Myers, Cain could make impact with Royals
Last year, the Royals had easily the best farm system in baseball, and it showed at the Major League level. Eric Hosmer showed his immense potential, Mike Moustakas got hot after initial struggles, and youths like Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy and Tim Collins contributed as well.
Despite promoting all that talent, the Royals still find themselves with one of the best systems in baseball entering the 2012 season. And while not all the players on the above list contributed in fantasy, the Royals have some players on the farm who can definitely help you -- some as soon as this upcoming season. Here are four to keep tabs on.
Wil Myers: He started out as a catching prospect, but the Royals moved him to the outfield to accelerate his transition to the Majors. That plan might have backfired last year, when his focus on learning a new positive could have taken away from his focus at the plate. He hit a career-low .254 with just eight homers and nine steals in 99 games at Double-A (416 plate appearances).


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