Curtis Granderson Adjusts to New York

I'd like to thank Eno for the opportunity to get back into some fantasy work after putting a lot of time in directly with the Red Sox analysis at FireBrandAL.com.  On top of my own site I spent some time at HardBallTimes.com doing fantasy and miss the large pool of players to analyze instead of just one team.  I'll be looking through the outfielders here on a weekly basis.

I have to say my title for this one is a bit deceiving as I don't think Curtis Granderson has adjusted so much to playing in New York, but instead is something we should have seen coming.  His low average and OBP were not that surprising since his career average only stands at .269 and .342 respectively.  The interesting part was how little his power grew in 2010 going from 30 homers in his final year in Detroit to only 24 in New York.  This was a bit surprising as he went from a home park that depressed HR power for lefties 13 percent to New York which has increased HR power 30 percent for left handers.  (StatCorner.com data)

Now you might say that Granderson was hitting for more power in 2010 based on his ISO increasing to .221 and his HR total was only limited by his playing time and you would be right.  He hit a home run every 21 AB in 2009 and one every 19 AB in New York.  The issue was he was expected to get even more power numbers in New York and hidden in there was some evidence he was ready to explode this year.

If you look at his data from 2010 on hittrackeronline.com you can see he was not getting lucky with his home runs.  He had only 3 home runs listed as Just Enough meaning on a normal day in most parks it would not be a home run.  According to averages, players should have about 27 percent of their home runs listed as Just Enough.

Granderson was only 12 percent meaning if we extrapolate his numbers out to 27 percent he would have totaled 29 home runs in only 528 AB in 2010.  That alone would not predict the power he has shown this year, but definitely someone who should not have been so overlooked this year.

According to CouchManagers.com his ADP this season was 111 putting him in the ninth or tenth round behind players like Aubrey Huff and Brett Gardner.  The owners who made the buy on Granderson got rewarded and should continue to be rewarded.  While he might slow some I would look no further than his ZiPs rest of season projection of 38 home runs and a .268/.343/.552 triple slash line.  (Does not include his home run Tuesday night)

He also currently holds only 3 Just Enough home runs at this point of the season for 18 percent.  I'm not ready to bet the farm that the power could get even better, but it's obvious this power is for real and 2011 should finish as his best season all around except perhaps 2007 in average, R and SB totals.  I would still take the possibility of 40 homers and the extra RBI over his 2007 season.

Obviously his power is finally translating to New York and I would only move Granderson for the best of deals.  In most cases your not going to get equal value back, but you should expect a good deal.  Someone like a Cliff Lee is out of reach with the spike in strikeouts, but perhaps teammate CC Sabathia could be available in return.  My overall opinion is to stick with Granderson and enjoy this season.